Ask PortlandIndependent civic measurement
Methodology

The method is the product.

A public survey is only worth something if the people who disagree with the result still believe the number. That belief has to be earned with method, not asserted with a logo. So everything below is published, every release repeats it, and we lead with the findings that survive scrutiny.

What we promise, every time

  • Raw and weighted, side by side. You always see what we literally collected and the estimate after correcting for who showed up. Neither is ever shown as if it were the other.
  • Sample, channels, and skew named. Every release states its size, where respondents came from, and how it differs from Portland.
  • Neutral instrument. Questions are worded to read the same to a supporter and a skeptic; the opinion question is asked last so it can't color the rest.
  • You see your own scoring. At the end, we tell you exactly how your answers classified you. Nothing is hidden.

How weighting works

People who opt into a survey are never a mirror of the city — they skew by age, income, and whether they own or rent. We correct for that with raking (iterative proportional fitting): every response is given a weight so that the sample's mix on each dimension below matches Portland's actual population. We rake all dimensions together, because they're correlated, and we trim extreme weights so one thin cell can't dominate. The result is reported as an effective sample size — the “real” N after weighting.

DimensionBenchmark source
TenureACS 2023 5-yr (PLACEHOLDER — replace with City of Portland marginals)
AgeACS 2023 5-yr, adults 18+ (PLACEHOLDER)
Household incomeACS 2023 5-yr (PLACEHOLDER; 'prefer not to say' excluded as missing)

In progress: the benchmark targets currently use placeholder ACS figures. Before any published release they are replaced with exact City-of-Portland marginals — the results pages flag this until the swap is made.

What each question is for

The survey looks short because no one sees the whole thing — a single fork (own / rent) routes you down one of two paths that re-converge on shared closing questions. Here is what every question measures.

Do you own or rent your current home?

Tenure is both the branching question and a weighting dimension. 'Other' (e.g. living with family, land trust) is routed to the owner-style block as the closest fit.

Which best describes your situation?

A proxy for financial insulation: owners who are paid off / low loan-to-value are the structurally insulated group most able to treat the home as a protected nest egg.

When you think about your home's value rising over time, how important is that to your financial future?

The key discriminator between the Nest-Egg Defender (relies on appreciation) and the Pure Dweller (treats the home as shelter, not an investment).

In the next 5 years, do you want to change your housing — move, downsize, or relocate?

Identifies the Trapped Owner — someone who wants to move but feels they can't (often due to the property-tax reset on sale or a lack of suitable smaller homes).

Have you considered adding a home to your property — a backyard cottage (ADU) or additional units — and if you didn't pursue it, why not?

The highest-value question in the survey. It identifies the Aspirational Improver and — crucially — measures what stops the willing ones. The share blocked specifically by financing is direct evidence for the small-builder lending gap.

Is this home your primary residence?

Separates owner-occupants from the Speculator / investor-holder cohort (owns but lives elsewhere, or holds purely as an investment).

Would you like to own a home in Portland someday?

Captures suppressed ownership demand — renters who want to buy but can't are a different population from those who choose to rent.

In the past 2 years, have housing costs made you consider leaving Portland, or doubling up with others?

Measures the 'hidden demand' effect — households suppressed or pushed out by cost, which never show up in vacancy statistics.

Roughly what share of your income goes to rent?

Cost burden (>30% of income on rent) and severe burden (>50%) size the bottom of the market — the population the market cannot serve without subsidy.

How do you feel about more housing being built in your neighborhood — duplexes, ADUs, small apartments?

Asked of owners and renters alike and placed last, so earlier neutral questions aren't contaminated by it. Cross-tabbing this by tenure and age is the measured coalition arithmetic.

Roughly, your household's yearly income:

Used only for weighting. 'Prefer not to say' is treated as missing and excluded from the income raking dimension.

How the segments are assigned

Cohorts are assigned by transparent, priority-ordered rules — no black box. When someone fits more than one (a Trapped Owner is often also a Defender by finances), the higher-priority, more actionable label wins, and every match is recorded so overlaps stay visible.

  1. Speculator / InvestorOwns the home as an investment or second property rather than living in it.
  2. Priced-Out AspirantA renter who wants to own but feels it's out of reach.
  3. Aspirational ImproverAn owner who has built or seriously considered adding a home on their land.
  4. Active BuyerA renter actively trying to buy.
  5. Trapped OwnerWants to move or downsize but feels they can't — a latent ally of more housing.
  6. Uncertain RenterUnsure whether ownership is in their future.
  7. Nest-Egg DefenderRelies on the home's rising value for retirement — the core of scarcity politics.
  8. Content RenterPrefers renting by choice.
  9. Pure DwellerTreats the home as shelter, not an investment — the persuadable middle.

Reaching the whole city (not just the loud part)

Weighting fixes demographics, but it can't conjure voices that never answered. So representativeness is won on the distribution side: we deliberately diversify channels — advocacy lists and Reddit reach the young and online; neighborhood associations, senior centers, faith networks, and culturally-specific community organizations reach the people every survey misses. Each response is tagged with its channel so the mix is auditable, and partner organizations receive their community's results first, free, to use as they see fit.

Keeping responses honest

Because the survey is anonymous and deliberately low-friction, we protect data quality with light, layered checks rather than logins: a hidden trap field only automated bots fill, a minimum time-to-complete, and limits on repeat submissions from one browser or floods from one network — all tuned so they never block legitimate responses from shared computers at a library or community organization. Every response also carries anonymous signals (a hashed browser id, completion time, the channel it came through) so duplicates and anomalies can be removed before results are finalized. No check is perfect on an open survey; the aim is to make corruption costly and detectable, and to clean the data transparently.

The honest limits

  • This is an opt-in sample, not a probability sample. Weighting reduces bias; it doesn't eliminate it.
  • Weighting corrects demographics, not attitudes — so read opinion splits as ranges, with opposition a floor and support a ceiling.
  • The most trustworthy findings are the ones that hold even in a favorable sample, like a stated barrier among people who already want to act. We lead with those.
  • Until exact ACS benchmarks are wired in, treat the weighted shares as directional.

See the method in action.